questions/
37 pages · Updated June 15, 2026
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- Will the North Atlantic sea surface temperature reach a daily record high before May 2026?
- After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?
- If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years?
- Will Spirit Airlines emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy before 2026?
- Will OpenAI's ChatGPT Atlas browser be released for Windows before September 1, 2026?
- Will a case of Bundibugyo Ebola disease be first confirmed in the US before 2027?
- Will a recession begin in the United States in the following years?
- Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?
- What will the National Institutes of Health’s budget be in these fiscal years?
- What will the average global surface air temperature be in 2026 relative to the pre-industrial baseline?
- What will be the US monthly core CPI inflation for February 2026?
- How does the level of existential risk posed by AGI depend on its arrival time?
- Will real-money betting on Polymarket or Manifold become legal in the United States in 2025?
- Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?
- Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025?
- When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
- What will real Gross World Product be in 2047, in trillions of 2020 US$?
- Will Instructure be subject to another major hack before September 1, 2026?
- Will Shakira's "Dai Dai" outpeak Shakira's "Waka Waka" on the Billboard Hot 100?
- Five years after AGI, what will be the world’s real average annual GDP growth?
- Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?
- How many building permits will California issue in March through May 2026?
- Will the Senate of the Philippines remove Vice President Sara Duterte from office before September 2026?
- Will the UK National Threat Level reduce from SEVERE before September 2026?
- Will any match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup be delayed by more than 30 minutes due to extreme heat?
- When will the last US casino close?
- Will the S&P 500 hit 10,000 points by the end of the decade?
- How much global warming by 2100?
- When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
- What will YoY US electricity inflation be for February 2026?
- Will Claude Mythos or a similar model be publicly released before September 2026?
- Will the Community beat Dylan Matthews in the Metaculus Cup Summer 2026?
- Will a new High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina officially be in place before September 2, 2026?
- Will any U.S. state or EU member state restrict large-scale data center grid connections before September 2026?
- Frontiers in Disease Prevention Findings
- Will at least 5 non-passengers be linked to the MV Hondius hantavirus outbreak before August 2026?
- How many FLOPS will be used to train GPT-4 (if it is released)?