How many building permits will California issue in March through May 2026?

Current estimate

27.4k Building Permits
20k - 36k
(26.4k - 28.4k)

Forecast Timeline

Comments

jeffrey.liang · 2 weeks ago
I’m forecasting around 27.45k for March–May 2026.
March is already known at about 9.36k seasonally adjusted permits.
For April and May, I expect some continued support from California’s housing backlog and permitting reforms, but I do not want to fully extrapolate the unusually high February/Q1 pattern.

MarcosO · last month
My first quartile (Q1), median, and third quartile (Q3) ended up being 26,550; 27,663; and 28,764.
The recent February print at 12,278 is unusually high…

For my final forecast, I ended up blending my Monte Carlo forecast at a 70% weight with my preliminary 5-year base rate forecast at a 30% weight to end with a Q1, median, and Q3 forecast of 26,550; 27,663; and 28,764.

Conclusion

Forecasting building permits in California for March to May 2026 combines historical data, recent trends, and upcoming regulatory impacts.