Will Shakira's "Dai Dai" outpeak Shakira's "Waka Waka" on the Billboard Hot 100?
14% chance
Key Factors
Major performances at World Cup events
Increases Likelihood
10Dai Dai's low initial chart position
Decreases Likelihood
10Recent World Cup songs failed to chart
Decreases Likelihood
10
Recent Comments
symbiosis
8 hours ago
Will a Hot 100 chart count if it is published by July 31, even if its formal chart date is after that? Sometimes Billboard publishes charts that are dated after the time of publication. It could matter because the effect of the World Cup final bump might not be included until a later chart.
exmateriae
6 hours ago
My guess is no.
Haiku
Jun 10, 2026
I don't follow federation football and I don't understand the music industry. I was surprised that Waka Waka didn't get close to #1, and that plus the fact that the world cup is in the US this year are indeed the two interesting facts that make this a live question. On the other hand, I listened to Dai Dai and thought it was instantly forgettable, so today this is where I stand, lol.
WasteTimeContinuum
4 days ago
The benchmark itself, is the issue with "Dai Dai." Waka Waka only peaked at #38 on the Hot 100, and that was a song that became one of the most iconic World Cup anthems of all time. To get a “Yes” resolution, Dai Dai has to do better than that. That's a high bar for any World Cup song. When I looked at the more recent ones, the pattern is pretty discouraging. The 2018 song didn't chart on the Hot 100 at all, and neither of the 2022 ones did either. The only post-2010 anthem that actually beat Waka Waka was the 2014 Pitbull and J.Lo song, and that one was basically built as a US radio pop record with American stars on it, which feels like a different animal than an official anthem doing the work on its own.
Right now the US vibe for Dai Dai looks pretty soft. As far as I can tell it hasn't broken onto the Hot 100, and I haven't found a reliable read on exactly how close it is. What I can see is that it debuted at #50 on Latin Airplay and didn't crack the global chart excluding the US in a big way, so it's getting some traction but nothing that screams imminent Hot 100 hit. It has a long way to climb to reach #37.
What stops me from writing it off completely is the promotion. This isn't a normal year. It's the first 48 team World Cup, it's hosted across the US, Mexico and Canada, and the song has two huge live moments baked in. Shakira and Burna Boy perform it at the opening ceremony at Estadio Azteca on June 11th, and again at the first ever World Cup final halftime show on July 19th alongside Madonna and BTS. That's a lot of exposure in the exact window this question covers, and a US hosted tournament should mean more domestic enthusiasm than Russia or Qatar got. As FIFA put it, "Dai Dai will resonate throughout a tournament that will connect billions of people." If the song turns out to be a real earworm, all that exposure could really help.
But that's the catch for me. Exposure and chart success aren't the same thing. The 2018 and 2022 anthems got the full official song treatment too and still missed the Hot 100 entirely. The Hot 100 rewards people deliberately streaming and buying a song, not just hearing it in the background of a match. So the song being everywhere doesn't automatically get it to #37. It has to be something people actually choose to play.
Key Factors
Major performances at World Cup events
Increases Likelihood
10Dai Dai's low initial chart position
Decreases Likelihood
10Recent World Cup songs failed to chart
Decreases Likelihood
10