How does the level of existential risk posed by AGI depend on its arrival time?

Forecasts

Timeline Fan Charts

Forecasts (Percentage)

Timeline Range Probability (%)
2025-01-01 to 2029-12-31 40
2030-01-01 to 2039-12-31 28
2040-01-01 to 2059-12-31 15
2060-01-01 to 2099-12-31 7

Comments and Predictions

  1. ADQ: The title says existential risk, but the resolution criteria is about extinction risk!
    Date: Apr 9, 2024

  2. Jelle: Great point! The definition needs clarification.
    Date: Feb 7, 2024

  3. casens: Here’s a breakdown of predictions linking extinction risks to AGI arrival times: 

    AGI before 2025: (0.33 * 0.10) = 3.3% of extinction by 2050
AGI before 2030: (0.40 * 0.16) + 0.033 = 9.7% of extinction by 2055
AGI before 2040: (0.40 * 0.22) + 0.097 = 18.5% of extinction by 2065
AGI before 2060: (0.33 * 0.23) + 0.185 = 26.1% of extinction by 2085
AGI before 2100: (0.27 * 0.15) + 0.261 = 30.1% of extinction by 2125

  4. monkyyy: I'm confused by the low predictions; if you drop an AGI in a world without controls, shouldn’t the odds be much higher?
    Date: Oct 21, 2022

  5. kokotajlod: I want to understand the reasoning behind the community prediction being highest in the thirties.
    Date: Oct 21, 2022

Resolution Criteria

We're interested in the probability that AGI will cause a catastrophe leading to human extinction, conditioned on the time at which it is developed. Extinction must be caused by a catastrophe directly due to AGI. The question's deadline is linked to the existing AI extinction question and captures the timeframe within which the prediction can resolve positively based on the conditions outlined.