Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?

5% chance
2% this week

Comments

Cdobbelmann's Prediction

10%
Feb 13, 2026
Unlikely. AI trends say no, S&P & Q’s maybe overextend future and cause an overall correction which pulls the name down but it’s unlikely.

Jetpackgummibear's Prediction

10%
Jan 21, 2026
I believe there is about 10% chance Nvidia could close for less than $100, however based on current market trend it is more likely that it will not dip that low.

kqr

Later today I will publish an article on how to back probabilities out of option prices, something I learned for this question specifically. TL;DR: roughly supports the community aggregate prediction.

Here's the draft – happy to receive any and all feedback!
Draft Article

exmateriae

Reading this felt like the IQ curve meme (you being on the right side lol), I'm at 10% too but did not make a precise model of why.

JesusDeSivar's Prediction

28%
Jan 18, 2026
Reasoning:

  • Current price: $186.10 (Jan 16, 2026)
  • Target: Close below $100 on ANY trading day = 46% decline needed
  • 52-week low: $86.62 (already touched sub-$100 in past year!)
  • 52-week high: $212.19

Key factors increasing likelihood:

  • Stock already touched $86.62 in past 52 weeks - proves sub-$100 is possible
  • Question only needs ONE bad day, not sustained decline
  • China restrictions hurt major revenue source
  • Google Ironwood TPUs competing with Blackwell
  • AI bubble concerns (Shiller P/E at historical highs)
  • Tariff uncertainty could shock markets

Key factors decreasing likelihood:

  • Strong analyst consensus: "Strong Buy" with $255 target
  • Nvidia still dominates AI chip market (70-95% share)
  • Blackwell chips sold out with demand exceeding supply
  • $4.5 trillion market cap provides some stability
  • Multiple analyst targets above $300+

Critical consideration:

  • Stock hit $86.62 low within past year, so breaching $100 is definitely in play
  • Market crash, earnings miss, or China escalation could trigger drop
  • Single-day flash crash possible during 252 trading days

Confidence: Medium

Tristan_Williams

In the past year NVIDIA has only dipped below two times (once for a few days, the other time just for one day). To me the primary question here seems to be if we're to go into a broader recession, because I think NVIDIA would have to do something seriously wrong to take itself off a general path of growth in 2026.

What are the odds of a recession? Surveying seems to indicate it might be around 30% but it's hard to square that with my own beliefs about likely AI growth which most of those economists surveyed don't share, so a reasonable adjustment feels like perhaps 25%.