# When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

**Current estimate**  
Dec 2032  
**Forecast Timeline**

## Top Key Factors

- **Delays**: Reliable >50-step agent chains with published evaluations (101)
- **Hastens**: AI companies don’t get funding due to AI bubble bursting (153)
- **Delays**: AI demonstrates ability to apply knowledge from training to novel/unseen scenarios (40)
- **Hastens**: China starts a war with Taiwan (90)
- **Hastens**: Strong regulation of AI companies by the US government (6322)
- **Delays**: Genuinely good US government policy on AI safety (52)
- **Increases Uncertainty**: The Act of forecasting changes the forecast itself (0)

## Summary of Comments

### Prediction Insights
- **skmmcj**: The upper bound has been narrowed to January 1, 2080 due to community predictions being below 2065 for most of the question's lifetime.
- **t.maturkar**: Forecasts adjust based on reactions; definitions of AGI remain contentious.
- **tpgood1990**: DARPA aims to design training for AI experts, aligning with definitions of AGI from industry leaders.
- **AussieA**: Sees AGI as dependent on hardware scaling issues, predicting late 2030.
- **Davidlwarren**: Discusses key indicators of generalization and adaptability in AI.
- **alextes**: Shares that breakthrough definitions of AGI may remain elusive.

## Notable Predictions
- **Jgalt**: Predicts 2029 (2027-2030), pointing to Boston Dynamics' Atlas humanoid robot partnership with Google DeepMind.
- **BlueDot8338**: Expounds on the role of AI in automating software engineering, predicting breakthroughs in 2027.
- **Manda_Ralijaona**: Forecasting early 2032, highlighting physical limitations on power grids as bottlenecks.

### Conclusion
Current discussions highlight the essential debate around timelines and definitions tied to the progress of general AI, emphasizing factors like funding, technological advancements, and regulatory environments.