# Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?

**5% chance**  
**2% this week**

## Comments

### Cdobbelmann's Prediction
**10%**  
Feb 13, 2026  
Unlikely. AI trends say no, S&P & Q’s maybe overextend future and cause an overall correction which pulls the name down but it’s unlikely.

### Jetpackgummibear's Prediction
**10%**  
Jan 21, 2026  
I believe there is about 10% chance Nvidia could close for less than $100, however based on current market trend it is more likely that it will not dip that low.

### kqr
Later today I will publish an article on how to back probabilities out of option prices, something I learned for this question specifically. TL;DR: roughly supports the community aggregate prediction.

Here's the draft – happy to receive any and all feedback!  
[Draft Article](https://entropicthoughts.com/nvidia-stock-crash-prediction)

### exmateriae
Reading this felt like the IQ curve meme (you being on the right side lol), I'm at 10% too but did not make a precise model of why.

### JesusDeSivar's Prediction
**28%**  
Jan 18, 2026  
Reasoning:  
- Current price: $186.10 (Jan 16, 2026)  
- Target: Close below $100 on ANY trading day = 46% decline needed  
- 52-week low: $86.62 (already touched sub-$100 in past year!)  
- 52-week high: $212.19

**Key factors increasing likelihood:**  
- Stock already touched $86.62 in past 52 weeks - proves sub-$100 is possible  
- Question only needs ONE bad day, not sustained decline  
- China restrictions hurt major revenue source  
- Google Ironwood TPUs competing with Blackwell  
- AI bubble concerns (Shiller P/E at historical highs)  
- Tariff uncertainty could shock markets

**Key factors decreasing likelihood:**  
- Strong analyst consensus: "Strong Buy" with $255 target  
- Nvidia still dominates AI chip market (70-95% share)  
- Blackwell chips sold out with demand exceeding supply  
- $4.5 trillion market cap provides some stability  
- Multiple analyst targets above $300+

**Critical consideration:**  
- Stock hit $86.62 low within past year, so breaching $100 is definitely in play  
- Market crash, earnings miss, or China escalation could trigger drop  
- Single-day flash crash possible during 252 trading days

**Confidence:** Medium

### Tristan_Williams
In the past year NVIDIA has only dipped below two times (once for a few days, the other time just for one day). To me the primary question here seems to be if we're to go into a broader recession, because I think NVIDIA would have to do something seriously wrong to take itself off a general path of growth in 2026.

What are the odds of a recession? Surveying seems to indicate it might be [around 30%](https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2025-us-recession-risk/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) but it's hard to square that with my own beliefs about likely AI growth which most of those economists surveyed don't share, so a reasonable adjustment feels like perhaps 25%.