# Will Claude Mythos or a similar model be publicly released before September 2026?

**Resolved**: Yes  
**Resolved Date**: Jun 9, 2026  
**136 forecasters**  
**Key Factors**:  
1. US government interest adds release obstacles - Decreases Likelihood  
2. Ambiguous corporate language may mislead release - Decreases Likelihood  
3. Identity verification may enable Mythos release - Increases Likelihood  
4. Anthropic's IPO rumors increase release likelihood - Increases Likelihood  
5. Anthropic may release Claude Mythos for public this week: [Here is why it is a big deal](https://www.digit.in/news/general/anthropic-may-release-claude-mythos-for-public-this-week-here-is-why-it-is-a-big-deal.html) - Increases Likelihood  
6. OpenAI's upcoming IPO pressures Anthropic - Increases Likelihood

## Comments

1. [**exmateriae**](/content/accounts/profile/119188/index.html) - Jun 13, 2026:  
   "Turns out it's even worse: [the US government tried to stop Anthropic from releasing any version of Mythos](https://www.axios.com/2026/06/12/anthropic-trump-mythos-fable-national-security). Surprised by Anthropic's recklessness."

2. [**WasteTimeContinuum**](/content/accounts/profile/271410/index.html) - Jun 13, 2026:  
   "They’re probably trying to generate some energy for the IPO."

3. [**Russell-viper**](/content/accounts/profile/245211/index.html) - Jun 14, 2026:  
   "Don’t know what Anthropic was thinking."

4. Historical precedents of similar releases:  
    - PGP Encryption Crisis (1993–1996)  
    - Bernstein v. United States (1995)  
    - DeCSS DVD Crackdown (1999)  
    - Commercial Remote Sensing / Shutter Control (1990s)

| Conflict case         | Start year | Resolution year | Total duration |
|-----------------------|------------|------------------|----------------|
| PGP Encryption        | 1993       | 1996             | ~3 YEARS       |
| Bernstein v. US       | 1995       | 2003             | ~8.5 YEARS     |
| DeCSS Crackdown       | 1999       | 2001-2003        | ~2-4 YEARS     |
| Shutter Control       | 1992       | Permanent        | N/A            |

## Summary
The involvement of the U.S. Government indicates significant security concerns surrounding the release of the Mythos model. Predictions fluctuate, mainly centering around whether it can be perceived as a public release or remains restricted to vetted institutions. The implications of such a release on cybersecurity are highly scrutinized given its potential widespread impact.