Will the Community beat Dylan Matthews in the Metaculus Cup Summer 2026?

Top Key Factors

• Dylan's recalculated average peer score should bring him to CP competing range
  Increases Likelihood
  10
• Dylan has tournament experience but not Cup experience (increases uncertainty)
  Increases Likelihood
  10
• Nathan won in the Spring Cup, the base rate is higher than was expected
  Increases Likelihood
  10

Dylan's scores on the already resolved questions:

Community: 21, Dylan: 120.

Key Factors

• Dylan's recalculated average peer score should bring him to CP competing range
  Increases Likelihood
  10
• Dylan has tournament experience but not Cup experience (increases uncertainty)
  Increases Likelihood
  10
• Nathan won in the Spring Cup, the base rate is higher than was expected
  Increases Likelihood
  10

Comments

MaxA

Dylan's scores on the already resolved questions:

Community: 21, Dylan: 120.

(I'll keep updating this as more questions are resolved.)

Zaldath

Thanks for the effort! :P

By the way, could you more clearly show that the last row is about rankings? I initially thought it was about the Peer Score and was quite misguided for a while.

exmateriae

After the failure that was the Nathan question, we've learned that a motivated challenger may have better than expected odds despite never forecasting on Metaculus itself. Base rate for this question is technically 0% but obviously we shouldn't anchor on that. The base rate we had highlighted earlier was likely close to 90% but turns out it was for normal users, not especially incentivized ones.

One quick indication for everyone: we should expect the community to start low, the whole point is that we should expect it to go higher through time with almost every question. We shouldn't massively update after 4/5 questions unless the gap is really meaningful.

Dylan Matthews

This is a very thoughtful and flattering comment. One clarification: I left Vox in October of last year and now work at Coefficient Giving as an associate program officer on the Abundance & Growth Team.

My strategy for this cup is very heavily bot-assisted. I have a bespoke setup there that I think works well and takes a lot of tokens but it definitely screws up.