# Will the Community beat Dylan Matthews in the Metaculus Cup Summer 2026?

### Top Key Factors
- **Dylan's recalculated average peer score should bring him to CP competing range**  
  *Increases Likelihood*  
  10
- **Dylan has tournament experience but not Cup experience** *(increases uncertainty)*  
  *Increases Likelihood*  
  10
- **Nathan won in the Spring Cup, the base rate is higher than was expected**  
  *Increases Likelihood*  
  10

### Dylan's scores on the already resolved questions:

| Question                                      | Community score | Dylan's score  |
|-----------------------------------------------|------------------|-----------------|
| Musk v Altman                                | 8.0              | -12.584         |
| Tony Awards                                   | 16.2            | 8.366           |
| Mythos release                                | 3.0              | 0.335           |
| Global Peace Index for Iran                   | 26.8            | 4.467           |
| **TOTAL**                                     | **53.979**       | **0.584**       |

Community: 21, Dylan: 120.

### Key Factors
- **Dylan's recalculated average peer score should bring him to CP competing range**  
  *Increases Likelihood*  
  10
- **Dylan has tournament experience but not Cup experience (increases uncertainty)**  
  *Increases Likelihood*  
  10
- **Nathan won in the Spring Cup, the base rate is higher than was expected**  
  *Increases Likelihood*  
  10

### Comments
#### MaxA
Dylan's scores on the already resolved questions:

Community: 21, Dylan: 120.

(I'll keep updating this as more questions are resolved.)

#### Zaldath
Thanks for the effort! :P

By the way, could you more clearly show that the last row is about rankings? I initially thought it was about the Peer Score and was quite misguided for a while.

#### exmateriae
After the failure that was the Nathan question, we've learned that a motivated challenger may have better than expected odds despite never forecasting on Metaculus itself. Base rate for this question is technically 0% but obviously we shouldn't anchor on that. The base rate we had highlighted earlier was likely close to 90% but turns out it was for normal users, not especially incentivized ones.

One quick indication for everyone: we should expect the community to start low, the whole point is that we should expect it to go higher through time with almost every question. We shouldn't massively update after 4/5 questions unless the gap is really meaningful.

#### Dylan Matthews
This is a very thoughtful and flattering comment. One clarification: I left Vox in October of last year and now work at Coefficient Giving as an associate program officer on the Abundance & Growth Team.

My strategy for this cup is very heavily bot-assisted. I have a bespoke setup there that I think works well and takes a lot of tokens but it definitely screws up.