Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?

Resolved: Yes

Timeline

Key Factors (0)

No key factors yet. Add some that might influence this forecast.

Comments (40)

Explanation by johnnycaffeine
This question resolves as Yes, with Bitcoin having outperformed the Total Stock Market ETF by 19 percentage points during the time period.

The largest crypto exchange at the end of 2025 was Binance, but its bitcoin page does not seem to have history from 2021, so we will use Yahoo Finance instead, per the Metaculus FAQ.

The price of bitcoin at the open on March 1, 2021 was 45,159.5. On December 31, 2025 it was 87,508.83. This is a gain of 94%.

The price of VTI at the end of 2025 was 335.27. The adjusted close price on March 1, 2021 (which per the res criteria is what we use in order to account for dividends) was 191.25. This is a gain of 75%.

Please find a spreadsheet here with the math.

Bitcoin vs. VTI (2021 - Early 2026)

  • Bitcoin (BTC): Experienced huge price swings, including a significant rally in 2021, a major crash in 2022, a massive rebound in 2023 (up over 150%), another strong year in 2024 (up over 120%), and slight losses in 2025, ending the period with extreme overall gains.
  • VTI (Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF): Grew steadily, with positive returns in 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025, providing consistent but much lower returns compared to Bitcoin's explosive moves.

Key Takeaways

  • Volatility vs. Stability: Bitcoin's period from 2021-2025 showcases its high-risk, high-reward nature, whereas VTI represents broad market stability.
  • Market Sentiment: Bitcoin's performance is heavily influenced by macro factors, institutional adoption, and investor sentiment, creating massive upswings after downturns.
  • Outperformance: Despite periods of decline, Bitcoin's massive rallies far outpaced VTI's consistent, but moderate, stock market gains over the entire timeframe, making it the outperformer.

In summary, while VTI provided reliable growth, Bitcoin delivered substantially higher returns during this volatile 5-year period, significantly outperforming the broad stock market.