Will a recession begin in the United States in the following years?
Forecasts
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.25 |
| 2027 | 0.50 |
| 2028 | 0.75 |
| 2029 | 0.00 |
Timeline
Comments:
@RyanBeck · on Oct 6, 2025
Seems like 2025 might be due for an update, otherwise I'd be interested to hear from anyone who thinks the probability is still 40%+.@Dumbledores_Army · on Oct 8, 2025
Remember that NBER dates recessions with a long lag. As of now, our latest BLS data is for August and the labour market was already slowing back then...@RyanBeck · on Oct 8, 2025
interesting, the fairly strong Q2 GDP growth seems worthy to me of a big update toward it being lower chance...@Dumbledores_Army · on May 29, 2025
The BEA's second estimate of 1Q GDP confirmed a contraction, -0.2% annualized...@idcohen2000 · on May 30, 2025
What about the current GDP Now estimates? GDPNow@Dumbledores_Army · on Jun 1, 2025
Huh. My first thought is that there's some unusual technical factor causing the GDPNow estimate to spike...@Cato · on Mar 2, 2025
A couple recession indicators have recently flipped in a bad direction. First, GDPNow, an estimate by the Atlanta Fed of annualized GDP growth during the concurrent quarter, has dropped to -1.5%...@Dumbledores_Army · on Mar 3, 2025
And today the Atlanta Fed revised the GDP now even further down, to -2.8%...