Frontiers in Disease Prevention Findings

Will a 2026 World Cup match be delayed due to heat?

  • Forecasters: 72
  • Chance: 10%
  • Key Factors:
    • FIFA's stronger action threshold at 32°C
    • Open-air venues pose heat suspension risks
    • Air-conditioned stadiums for high-risk matches

"Dai Dai" vs "Waka Waka" on Hot 100?

  • Forecasters: 71
  • Chance: 14%
  • Key Factors:
    • Recent World Cup songs failed to chart
    • Dai Dai's low initial chart position
    • Major performances at World Cup events

Will a new cultivated meat product be approved before July 2027?

  • Forecasters: 9
  • Chance: 70%

How many screwworm cases in Mexico before July 2027?

  • Forecasters: 7
  • Current estimate: 71.3k cases

Will plant-based meat reach 10% of US retail meat sales before 2031?

  • Forecasters: 10
  • Chance: 4.1%

Will FURA add a new cultivated meat dish before July 2027?

  • Forecasters: 8
  • Chance: 52.5%

What percentage of votes will be for Yes in Iceland's August 2026 EU referendum?

  • Forecasters: 5
  • Distribution:
    • Less than or equal to 50% (the referendum fails): 20.9%
    • Greater than 50% and less than 53%: 33%
    • Greater than or equal to 53% and less than 56%: 33%
    • Greater than or equal to 56%: 13.2%

Forecasting the Future of Animals: $3,400 in prizes

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  • Tournament: Animal Futures Tournament
  • Prize pool: $3,400
  • Closes in: 2 years
  • Forecasters: 61

# of top labs with animal welfare in AI guidelines in 2034?

  • Forecasters: 5
  • Distribution:
    • 2 labs: 15.1%
    • 3 labs: 15.1%
    • 6 labs: 13.5%
    • 7 labs: 15.1%
    • 4 others

Will Save Our Bacon be enacted before July 2027?

  • Forecasters: 7
  • Chance: 20%

What share of global fish production will be aquaculture in 2040?

  • Forecasters: 7
  • Current estimate: 66%

Host Nation in World Cup Semifinals 2026

  • Forecasters: 21
  • Chance: 10%

How much funding will Wild Animal Initiative receive in 2026?

  • Forecasters: 9
  • Current estimate: 3.98 $m

Will Bass be reelected LA Mayor in 2026?

  • Forecasters: 6
  • Chance: 53%

Will Nueva Pescanova's octopus farm be approved before June '27?

  • Forecasters: 7
  • Chance: 10%

SpaceX last closing price at end of August 2026?

  • Forecasters: 73
  • Current estimate: 153 $

Wild animal infected with New World screwworm in the US before 2027?

  • Forecasters: 34
  • Chance: 70%

Who will win the 2026 California gubernatorial election?

  • Forecasters: 76
  • Candidates:
    • Chad Bianco: 0.1%
    • Steve Hilton: 3.7%
    • Katie Porter: 0.1%
    • Xavier Becerra: 95.9%

What % of the US hen flock will be in-ovo sexed in 2027?

  • Forecasters: 8
  • Current estimate: 3.03%

Market Pulse Challenge 26Q2

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  • 6 questions recently resolved
  • Closes in: 2 weeks
  • Forecasters: 189

How many more US states will ban cultivated meat before July 2027?

  • Forecasters: 5
  • Distribution:
    • 0%: 10%
    • 1-2 states: 23%
    • 2-3 states: 24%
    • 3-4 states: 32%
    • 4+ states: 20%

What will be Mexico's forecasted meat consumption for 2027?

  • Forecasters: 8
  • Current estimate: 11.1k 1000 MT CWE

What will India's meat production per capita be in 2026-2027?

  • Forecasters: 7
  • Current estimate: 7.77 kg per capita

What % of the EU hen flock will be in-ovo sexed in 2027?

  • Forecasters: 8
  • Current estimate: 38.2%