What will the average global surface air temperature be in 2026 relative to the pre-industrial baseline?

Current estimate
1.45 °C
(1.41 - 1.5)

Forecast Timeline

Top Key Factors

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Will the North Atlantic sea surface temperature reach a daily record high before May 2026?
1% chance

Comments

User: A6N23

Warm ocean waters are fueling the development of El Niño.
Above average temperatures forecast nearly everywhere for June to August.

Impacts:

  • Increased heatwaves on land and in the ocean.
  • Heavy rainfall in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, parts of the Horn of Africa and central Asia, and drier conditions over Central America, northern South America, the Caribbean, Australia, Indonesia, and parts of southern Asia.
  • El Niño’s warm water can fuel hurricanes in the central/eastern Pacific Ocean, while it hinders hurricane formation in the Atlantic Basin. Thus, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is forecasting a below-normal hurricane season for the Atlantic basin this year.

WMO indicates 80% of an El Niño event during June–August 2026

User: Dumbledores_Army

Community looks high. The average so far for 2026 (data to 12 Mar) is 1.41C
Climate Change Tracker

User: Dumbledores_Army

Dumbledores_Army's Prediction
1.4 °C (1.36 - 1.44)
May 14, 2026
If an El Niño starts later this year, then the second half should be a bit warmer than the first, but the community still looks unrealistic.

User: exmateriae

Really glad to see this is an ACX question

User: JesusDeSivar

JesusDeSivar's Prediction
1.42 °C (1.38 - 1.46)
Jan 18, 2026

Reasoning:

  • 2025 (through Dec): 1.46°C anomaly
  • 2024: 1.52°C (record high)
  • 2023: 1.44°C
  • La Niña conditions expected: 61% chance of transition to neutral in early 2026

Key factors for lower temperature:

  • La Niña typically cools global temperatures.
  • 2024 was exceptionally warm (strong El Niño carry-over).
  • Reversion to trend after record year expected.
  • 2026 likely cooler than 2024-2025.

Key factors for higher temperature:

  • Underlying warming trend continues.
  • CO2 levels still rising.
  • Even La Niña years now warmer than past El Niño years.
  • Climate system has structural upward shift.

Historical pattern:

  • Post-El Niño years typically see 0.1-0.2°C decline

Projection:

  • Expect slight cooling from 2024's 1.52°C
  • But still above pre-2023 levels
  • 1.40-1.45°C most likely range

Confidence: Medium-High (climate models relatively reliable)