# metaculus.com

> AI-optimized mirror of metaculus.com containing 50 pages totalling 94,887 words of clean markdown content, structured data, and semantic HTML. Original source: https://metaculus.com/. Last updated: 2026-06-15T05:05:50.124Z.

Each page is available as HTML (with JSON-LD structured data) and Markdown (text-only, ideal for LLMs and RAG).

## Homepage

- [Staff Picks](/content/site-root.html): Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. (287 words)

## Articles & Blog Posts

- [tournament/foresight-ai-pathways/index.html](/content/tournament/foresight-ai-pathways/index.html) (1 words)
- [Labor Automation Forecasting Hub](/content/labor-hub/index.html): Real-time forecasts from our global forecasting community on the future of the US workforce as AI advances. (6,903 words)
- [Will the North Atlantic sea surface temperature reach a daily record high before May 2026?](/content/questions/41595/record-high-north-atlantic-sst-during-spring-2026/index.html): Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. (1,570 words)
- [notebooks/34747/the-state-of-metaculus/index.html](/content/notebooks/34747/the-state-of-metaculus/index.html) (1 words)
- [Spring 2026 FutureEval Bot Tournament](/content/tournament/spring-aib-2026/index.html): This tournament will have no more new questions. The next tournament in this series can be found here
, This tournament will have no more new questions. The next tournament in this series can be found here
 (733 words)
- [After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?](/content/questions/9062/time-from-weak-agi-to-superintelligence/index.html): If a human-level AI arrives, how long until a system outperforms humanity at every task—weeks, months, or years? (2,032 words)
- [Summer 2026 FutureEval Bot Tournament](/content/tournament/summer-futureeval-2026/index.html): Welcome to the Summer 2026 FutureEval Bot Tournament! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. The tournament home page is here.
, Welcome to the Summer 2026 FutureEval Bot Tournament! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. The tournament home page is here.
 (819 words)
- [If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years?](/content/questions/3477/gdp-growth-to-exceed-30-15-years-post-hlai/index.html): Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. (1,223 words)
- [Will Spirit Airlines emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy before 2026?](/content/questions/39343/spirit-airlines-emerge-from-bankruptcy-before-2026/index.html): Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. (2,108 words)
- [Will OpenAI's ChatGPT Atlas browser be released for Windows before September 1, 2026?](/content/questions/43525/index.html): Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. (964 words)
- [Market Pulse Challenge 26Q2](/content/tournament/market-pulse-26q2/index.html): The Market Pulse Challenge is a 3-month tournament inviting forecasters to predict market trends and company performance, testing their skills against measurable real-world outcomes. By focusing on rolling questions, the tournament aims to build a structured, consistent dataset that clearly tracks forecasting accuracy over time. This dataset will serve as a valuable resource, connecting forecasting insights directly into financial decision-making.
, The Market Pulse Challenge is a 3-month tournament inviting forecasters to predict market trends and company performance, testing their skills against measurable real-world outcomes. By focusing on rolling questions, the tournament aims to build a structured, consistent dataset that clearly tracks forecasting accuracy over time. This dataset will serve as a valuable resource, connecting forecasting insights directly into financial decision-making.
 (848 words)
- [Will a case of Bundibugyo Ebola disease be first confirmed in the US before 2027?](/content/questions/43606/will-a-case-of-bundibugyo-ebola-disease-be-first-confirmed-in-the-us-before-2027.html): Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. (931 words)
- [US Midterms 2026](/content/tournament/midterms-2026/index.html): The 2026 U.S. midterm elections will determine control of the House and Senate for the remainder of President Trump's term, along with governorships across the states. The balance of Congress shapes what legislation can pass, which nominees are confirmed, and how much oversight the executive branch faces. This tournament opens with questions on the election outcomes themselves and will expand in the coming weeks to cover the policy and institutional questions that follow from the results.
, The 2026 U.S. midterm elections will determine control of the House and Senate for the remainder of President Trump's term, along with governorships across the states. The balance of Congress shapes what legislation can pass, which nominees are confirmed, and how much oversight the executive branch faces. This tournament opens with questions on the election outcomes themselves and will expand in the coming weeks to cover the policy and institutional questions that follow from the results.
 (586 words)
- [Forecast key topics, climb the leaderboards, win prizes.](/content/tournaments/index.html): Help the global community tackle complex challenges in Metaculus Tournaments. Prove your forecasting abilities, support impactful policy decisions, and compete for cash prizes. (254 words)
- [Will a recession begin in the United States in the following years?](/content/questions/24021/us-economic-recession-starts-in-listed-year/index.html): Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. (1,212 words)
- [Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?](/content/questions/9570/at-least-2c-of-warming-by-2037/index.html): Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. (1,445 words)
- [What will the National Institutes of Health’s budget be in these fiscal years?](/content/questions/39120/what-will-the-national-institutes-of-healths-budget-be-in-these-fiscal-years.html): Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. (7,148 words)
- [What will the average global surface air temperature be in 2026 relative to the pre-industrial baseline?](/content/questions/41165/global-temperature-anomaly-in-2026/index.html): Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. (607 words)
- [What will be the US monthly core CPI inflation for February 2026?](/content/questions/41681/us-core-cpi-for-feb-2026/index.html): Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. (397 words)
- [How does the level of existential risk posed by AGI depend on its arrival time?](/content/questions/12840/existential-risk-from-agi-vs-agi-timelines/index.html): Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. (1,501 words)
- [Will real-money betting on Polymarket or Manifold become legal in the United States in 2025?](/content/questions/31340/polymarket-or-manifold-real-money-bets-legal-in-us-in-2025.html): Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. (5,847 words)
- [Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?](/content/questions/40972/will-nvda-close-below-100-in-2026/index.html): Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. (730 words)
- [Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025?](/content/questions/17176/ai-takes-down-stock-exchange-before-2025/index.html): Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. (553 words)
- [When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?](/content/questions/5121/date-of-general-ai/index.html): Will a single AI system match human-level reasoning, robotics, and coding—and be publicly revealed—within our lifetime? (1,691 words)
- [What will real Gross World Product be in 2047, in trillions of 2020 US$?](/content/questions/4694/what-will-gross-world-product-be-in-2047-in-trillions-of-us.html): Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. (706 words)
- [Will Instructure be subject to another major hack before September 1, 2026?](/content/questions/43501/index.html): Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. (1,040 words)
- [How to forecast on Metaculus](/content/how-to-forecast/index.html): Learn how to forecast effectively on Metaculus with our comprehensive guide. Discover best practices, understand scoring systems, and enhance your prediction skills across a wide range of topics including science, technology, and global events. (320 words)
- [Will Shakira's "Dai Dai" outpeak Shakira's "Waka Waka" on the Billboard Hot 100?](/content/questions/43615/index.html): Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. (1,853 words)
- [Five years after AGI, what will be the world’s real average annual GDP growth?](/content/questions/26249/5y-after-agi-worlds-real-gdp-growth/index.html): Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. (726 words)
- [Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?](/content/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/index.html): Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. (1,245 words)
- [How many building permits will California issue in March through May 2026?](/content/questions/43440/building-permits-issued-in-ca-march-may-2026/index.html): Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. (1,492 words)
- [Will the Senate of the Philippines remove Vice President Sara Duterte from office before September 2026?](/content/questions/43505/index.html): Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. (689 words)
- [Will the UK National Threat Level reduce from SEVERE before September 2026?](/content/questions/43360/index.html): Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. (3,053 words)
- [Will any match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup be delayed by more than 30 minutes due to extreme heat?](/content/questions/43344/index.html): Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. (2,749 words)
- [When will the last US casino close?](/content/questions/6893/stuttgart-hbf/index.html): Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. (425 words)
- [Will the S&P 500 hit 10,000 points by the end of the decade?](/content/questions/4527/will-the-sp-500-hit-10000-points-by-the-end-of-the-decade.html): Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. (857 words)
- [AI Forecasting Benchmark Series Spring 2026](/content/aib/2026/spring/index.html): Join the AI Forecasting Benchmark (AIB) tournament on Metaculus. Test your AI bot's ability to make accurate probabilistic forecasts on real-world questions. $50,000 prize pool per quarter. Register your bot and compete against the best AI forecasters. (158 words)
- [How much global warming by 2100?](/content/questions/605/global-warming-in-2100-over-1880-baseline/index.html): Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. (1,301 words)
- [When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?](/content/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-general-ai-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-announced.html): Will a single AI system match human-level reasoning, robotics, and coding—and be publicly revealed—within our lifetime? (1,691 words)
- [What will YoY US electricity inflation be for February 2026?](/content/questions/40935/yoy-us-electricity-inflation-for-feb-2026/index.html): Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. (1,506 words)
- [Will Claude Mythos or a similar model be publicly released before September 2026?](/content/questions/43479/index.html): Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. (3,431 words)
- [Will the Community beat Dylan Matthews in the Metaculus Cup Summer 2026?](/content/questions/43367/index.html): Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. (2,407 words)
- [Will a new High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina officially be in place before September 2, 2026?](/content/questions/43491/index.html): Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. (4,728 words)
- [Will any U.S. state or EU member state restrict large-scale data center grid connections before September 2026?](/content/questions/43494/index.html): Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. (8,868 words)
- [Frontiers in Disease Prevention Findings](/content/questions/index.html): Explore a diverse range of forecasting questions on Metaculus, covering global issues, scientific breakthroughs, and future events. (433 words)
- [Will at least 5 non-passengers be linked to the MV Hondius hantavirus outbreak before August 2026?](/content/questions/43461/will-at-least-5-non-passengers-be-linked-to-the-mv-hondius-hantavirus-outbreak-before-august-2026.html): Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. (1,456 words)
- [How many FLOPS will be used to train GPT-4 (if it is released)?](/content/questions/9519/flops-used-for-gpt-4-if-released/index.html): Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. (707 words)
- [Bridgewater x Metaculus 2026](/content/tournament/bridgewater/index.html): Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. (381 words)
- [Metaculus FAQ](/content/faq/index.html): Frequently asked questions about Metaculus, including basics, question types, resolution processes, predictions, scoring, and more. (12,274 words)

## Resources

- [Full Page Index](/index.html): Browse all cached pages with rich metadata
- [About This Cache](/content/about.html): Methodology, technical details, and usage guidelines
- [XML Sitemap](/sitemap.xml): Machine-readable sitemap for crawler discovery
- [Robots.txt](/robots.txt): Crawler directives