US Midterms 2026

The 2026 U.S. midterm elections will determine control of the House and Senate for the remainder of President Trump's term, along with governorships across the states. The balance of Congress shapes what legislation can pass, which nominees are confirmed, and how much oversight the executive branch faces. This tournament opens with questions on the election outcomes themselves and will expand in the coming weeks to cover the policy and institutional questions that follow from the results.

Forecast below. The community prediction is featured on our midterms dashboard, which tracks the most uncertain races and the electoral consequences.

Questions

Who will win the 2026 California gubernatorial election?

  • Chad Bianco: 0.1%
  • Steve Hilton: 3.5%
  • Katie Porter: 0.1%
  • Xavier Becerra: 96.1%

Announcing the US Midterms 2026 Tournament - $10,000 Prize Pool

Will the Democratic candidate win the 2026 gubernatorial election in the following US states?

  • Ohio: 45%
  • Nevada: 50%
  • Kansas: 34%
  • Iowa: 60%

What will be the US National Science Foundation discretionary budget for the 2028 fiscal year, conditional on control of Congress?

  • Democratic Congress: $6.54B
  • Republican Congress: $6.05B
  • Split Congress: $6.25B

What will be the final value of the U.S. Democracy Threat Index for 2027-2028, conditional on control of Congress?

  • Democratic Congress: 39.8
  • Republican Congress: 42.2
  • Split Congress: 40.8

Which party will win the 2026 Maine gubernatorial election?

  • Democrat: 82%
  • Republican: 17%
  • Other: 1%

Will Donald Trump be impeached for a third time, conditional on control of Congress?

  • Democratic Congress: 80%
  • Republican Congress: 4%
  • Split Congress: 55%

Which party will win the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

  • Democrat: 40%
  • Republican: 58%
  • Other: 2%

How many Article III appellate judges will be confirmed by the US Senate in 2027-2028, conditional on control of Congress?

  • Democratic Congress: 9.1
  • Republican Congress: 12.9
  • Split Congress: 11.2

Will the Democratic candidate win the 2026 US Senate election in the following states?

  • Georgia: 84%
  • Iowa: 40%
  • Maine: 64%
  • Michigan: 74%

What will be the Republican advantage (or disadvantage) vs Democrats in the House of Representatives after the 2026 elections?

  • Current estimate: -7.19 seats

Will Missouri's 2026 Amendment 3 pass, repealing the 2024 abortion-rights protections?

  • 34% chance

Will Donald Trump declare a national emergency related to election integrity before November 3, 2026?

  • 32% chance

Will federal courts block the USPS mail-in ballot restrictions before Election Day?

  • 60% chance

Will there be an unfilled Supreme Court vacancy on January 20, 2029, conditional on control of Congress?

  • Democratic Congress: 20%
  • Republican Congress: 6%
  • Split Congress: 15%

Will the U.S. Congress limit presidential war powers before January 3, 2029, conditional on control of Congress?

  • Democratic Congress: 55%
  • Republican Congress: 10%
  • Split Congress: 23%

Which party will control the US Congress following the 2026 midterm elections?

  • Dem Senate / Dem House: 40.3%
  • Rep Senate / Rep House: 13.8%
  • Dem Senate / Rep House: 1.5%
  • Rep Senate / Dem House: 44.4%

Will a bill restricting federal abortion funding or access pass both chambers of the 120th Congress, conditional on control of Congress?

  • Democratic Congress: 2%
  • Republican Congress: 50%
  • Split Congress: 5%

Will a bill limiting presidential tariff authority pass both chambers during the 120th Congress, conditional on control of Congress?

  • Democratic Congress: 60%
  • Republican Congress: 14%
  • Split Congress: 24%

Which party will hold the most seats in the US Senate after the 2026 midterm elections?

  • Democrats: 46.7%
  • Republicans: 53.2%
  • Other: 0.1%

Which party will hold the most seats in the US House of Representatives after the 2026 elections?

  • Democrats: 83%
  • Republicans: 16.9%
  • Other: 0.1%

What will be the Republican advantage (or disadvantage) vs Democrats in the Senate after the 2026 elections?

  • Current estimate: 0.376 seats

Which party will win the 2026 Michigan gubernatorial election?

  • Democrat: Annulled
  • Republican: Annulled
  • Other: Annulled