# Market Pulse Challenge 26Q2

**Started:** Mar 30  
**Closes:** Jun 16  
**Jun 12:** Last day for prize participation  
**$7,500 Prize Pool**

The Market Pulse Challenge is a 3-month tournament inviting forecasters to predict market trends and company performance, testing their skills against measurable real-world outcomes. By focusing on rolling questions, the tournament aims to build a structured, consistent dataset that clearly tracks forecasting accuracy over time. This dataset will serve as a valuable resource, connecting forecasting insights directly into financial decision-making.

Join us in Q2 2026, to turn financial intuition into reliable predictions and contribute to an actionable record of market forecasts.

### Spot Scoring
This tournament uses spot scoring, meaning that only predictions at the close time of each question count for tournament standings.

## Questions

### What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q2 2026?

| Date Range         | Result   |
|--------------------|----------|
| Apr 6 - Apr 17     | RESOLVED 4.26 |
| Apr 20 - May 1     | RESOLVED 4.39 |
| May 4 - May 15     | RESOLVED 4.59 |
| May 18 - May 29    | RESOLVED 4.45 |
| Jun 1 - Jun 12     | PENDING 4.49 |
| Jun 15 - Jun 26    | PENDING 4.50 |

---

### How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026?

| Date Range         | Result   |
|--------------------|----------|
| Apr 6 - Apr 17     | RESOLVED -32.88 |
| Apr 20 - May 1     | RESOLVED 20.27 |
| May 4 - May 15     | RESOLVED -2.607 |
| May 18 - May 29    | RESOLVED -19.33 |
| Jun 1 - Jun 12     | RESOLVED -0.7225 |
| Jun 15 - Jun 26    | PENDING 0.414 |

---

### How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026?

| Date Range         | Result   |
|--------------------|----------|
| Apr 6 - Apr 17     | RESOLVED -3.93 |
| Apr 20 - May 1     | RESOLVED -6.035 |
| May 4 - May 15     | RESOLVED -4.001 |
| May 18 - May 29    | RESOLVED -2.097 |
| Jun 1 - Jun 12     | RESOLVED -5.46 |
| Jun 15 - Jun 26    | PENDING -0.512 |

---

### How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026?

| Date Range         | Result   |
|--------------------|----------|
| Apr 6 - Apr 17     | RESOLVED 8.1 |
| Apr 20 - May 1     | RESOLVED -5.27 |
| May 4 - May 15     | RESOLVED 6.27 |
| May 18 - May 29    | RESOLVED -10.23 |
| Jun 1 - Jun 12     | RESOLVED 4 |
| Jun 15 - Jun 26    | PENDING 1.34 |

---

### How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026?

| Date Range         | Result   |
|--------------------|----------|
| Apr 6 - Apr 17     | RESOLVED 0.48 |
| Apr 20 - May 1     | RESOLVED 0.37 |
| May 4 - May 15     | RESOLVED 11.74 |
| May 18 - May 29    | RESOLVED -13.24 |
| Jun 1 - Jun 12     | RESOLVED 10.51 |
| Jun 15 - Jun 26    | PENDING 0.49 |

---

### How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q2 2026?

| Date Range         | Result   |
|--------------------|----------|
| Apr 6 - Apr 17     | RESOLVED 2.645 |
| Apr 20 - May 1     | RESOLVED 2.419 |
| May 4 - May 15     | RESOLVED 2.614 |
| May 18 - May 29    | RESOLVED 1.815 |
| Jun 1 - Jun 12     | RESOLVED -0.328 |
| Jun 15 - Jun 26    | PENDING 0.224 |

---

### What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q2 2026?

| Date Range         | Result   |
|--------------------|----------|
| Apr 6 - Apr 17     | RESOLVED 28 |
| Apr 20 - May 1     | RESOLVED 21.56 |
| May 4 - May 15     | RESOLVED 19.27 |
| May 18 - May 29    | RESOLVED 19.44 |
| Jun 1 - Jun 12     | RESOLVED 23.34 |
| Jun 15 - Jun 26    | PENDING 22.7 |

---

### What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q2 2026?

| Date Range         | Result   |
|--------------------|----------|
| Apr 6 - Apr 17     | RESOLVED 2.83 |
| Apr 20 - May 1     | RESOLVED 2.77 |
| May 4 - May 15     | RESOLVED 2.8 |
| May 18 - May 29    | RESOLVED 2.72 |
| Jun 1 - Jun 12     | PENDING 2.84 |
| Jun 15 - Jun 26    | PENDING 2.86 |

---

### What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2026 be for the following companies?

| Company | Result            |
|---------|-------------------|
| AMD     | 0.84 $            |
| Apple   | 2.01 $            |
| Amazon  | 2.78 $            |
| Meta    | 10.44 $           |
| 3 others|                   |

---

### What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q1 FY2027 earnings release?

| Metric                | Result     |
|-----------------------|------------|
| Revenue               | 91B $      |
| GAAP Gross Margin     | 74.9%      |
| GAAP Operating Expenses| 8.5B $     |

---

### What will the first reported revenues after March 2026 be for the following companies?

| Company | Result            |
|---------|-------------------|
| AMD     | 10.253B $         |
| Apple   | 111.184B $        |
| Amazon  | 181.519B $        |
| Meta    | 56.311B $         |
| 3 others|                   |