Staff Picks

What will SpaceX's stock price be at the end of August 2026?

Current estimate

154 $

Will any match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup be delayed by more than 30 minutes due to extreme heat?

10% chance

4% today

Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the contiguous US, before 2027?

70% chance

5% this week

Who will win the 2026 California gubernatorial election?

  • Chad Bianco: 0.1%
  • Steve Hilton: 3.5%
  • Katie Porter: 0.1%
  • Xavier Becerra: 96.1%
  • 4 others

Will Shakira's "Dai Dai" outpeak Shakira's "Waka Waka" on the Billboard Hot 100?

14% chance

4% today

Will a new cultivated meat product receive regulatory approval for commercial sale before July 2027?

66% chance

What proportion of global fish production will be from aquaculture in 2040?

Current estimate

64.6%

Will the Save Our Bacon Act be enacted into law before July 2027?

35% chance

How many of the top 2026 AI labs will reference animal welfare in their models' guidelines at the end of 2034?

  • 116.5%
  • 217.8%
  • 322.6%
  • 412.1%
  • 4 others

How many New World screwworm cases will be confirmed in Mexico in total before July 2027?

Current estimate

71.2k cases

How much funding will Wild Animal Initiative receive in 2026?

Current estimate

3.88 $m

Will any host nation (USA, Mexico or Canada) reach the semifinals of the 2026 World Cup?

10% chance

3% this week