Labor Automation Forecasting Hub
Real-time forecasts from our global forecasting community on the future of the US workforce as AI advances.
Forecasts: Live
Commentary last updated: Jun 12
Overall Employment By Job Vulnerability
Overall Employment
Metaculus forecast
Government baseline
| Year | Forecast | Government Baseline |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0% | +0.6% |
| 2027 | +2% | +1.6% |
| 2030 | -1.9% | +3.1% |
| 2035 | -3.8% | - |
Overall employment is projected to fall 1.9% by 2030 and fall 3.8% by 2035 relative to 2025 due to AI-driven displacement. This sharply contrasts with government baselines projecting +3.1% growth over the decade when accounting for aging-adjusted population trends.
Data from on Jun 15, 2026.
By Job Vulnerability
| Vulnerability | Employment Change |
|---|---|
| Least vulnerable | +10% growth |
| Most vulnerable | -10% decline |
The most vulnerable AI-exposed occupations are expected to shrink 10.4% by 2035, while the least vulnerable occupations grow 7.2%.
Key insights include:
Activity Monitor
How predictions have changed as AI advances
| Year | Percentage Change |
|---|---|
| 2027 | +46.8% |
| 2030 | +46.8% |
| 2035 | +43.6% |
Jobs Monitor
AI is reshaping the job market, but not all fields are affected equally.
(Percentage change in employment)
Expected Growth:
- Registered Nurses: +10.4%
- Physicians: +5.7%
- Law Enforcement: +5.4%
- Construction Workers: +4.3%
- Financial Specialists: +2.1%
- Restaurant Servers: +1.3%
Expected Decline:
- Engineers: -0.5%
- Laborers and Movers: -1.5%
- Designers: -2.5%
- K-12 Teachers: -3.9%
- Janitors and Cleaners: -3.9%
- General Managers: -5.1%
- Software Developers: -6.7%
- Services Sales Representatives: -11.7%
- Lawyers and Law Clerks: -12.7%
By 2035, nurses, physicians, and law enforcement are expected to see the highest growth, driven by hands-on needs that cannot be easily automated.
Hours, Pay, and Financial Well-Being
Percentage Change in Median Wage
| Occupation | 2030 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | +1.6% | +5.1% |
| Software Developers | +7.5% | +12.7% |
| Construction Workers | +3% | +10.8% |
| General Managers | +1.7% | +5.3% |
| Engineers | +2.4% | +7.4% |
| Financial Specialists | +8.2% | +12.9% |
Forecasts show that despite a predicted decline in overall employment, median wages are expected to grow.
Unemployment and Underemployment Rates for Recent Graduates
| Year | Unemployment Rate | Underemployment Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5.5% | 41.6% |
| 2027 | 8% | 45.5% |
| 2030 | 10.6% | 48.1% |
| 2035 | 12.2% | 54.6% |
Change in Degrees and Certificates Awarded
| Major | 2025 | 2027 | 2030 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall 4-year | +0% | - | +0% | -1.4% |
| STEM 4-year | +0% | - | +0.3% | -1.6% |
| Humanities 4-year | +0% | - | -4.1% | -8.3% |
| Trade School & Community College | +0% | +2.6% | +7.3% | +5.7% |
Productivity Change
| Year | Change |
|---|---|
| 2030 | +27.3% |
| 2035 | +41.1% |
Labor Share of National Income
| Year | Change |
|---|---|
| 2030 | 63.5% |
| 2035 | 59.6% |
Methodology
The forecasts presented were produced by aggregating many individual forecasts. The methodology reflects collaboration from various experts in the field. Acknowledgments are made to these contributors for their input.